Fed independence is now dead, and we are entering a new era of politicized economics. Let’s analyze where the economy is, and think about where things might go from here.
inflation
The Tariff Announcements Don’t Matter. The Uncertainty Does.
Pay less attention to the day-to-day, and more attention to the big picture. Follow the data, and it will tell the story.
The Big Tariff Explainer
This topic has been hotly requested, so here we go. Tariffs! They’re trump’s central economic theme, not a day goes by where they’re not in the news. But even though they’ve suddenly been thrust into the spotlight, I haven’t seen… Read More ›
The American Trade War – Our Bunker Hill Moment
I spent a long time working on a nice, big explainer blog to talk all about tariffs with you. Then, yesterday, we got the much-anticipated Liberation Day announcement, and you’ve seen the market reaction since. I hope you celebrated yesterday!… Read More ›
March 2025 – No One Has Any Clue What’s Going On
Two months into the new administration, and no one has a clue. Let’s make some sense of where we are.
2025 in Economics: A Starting Point
I hope you’re ready for the Wild West, because it’s back. Apart from some specific thinking about inflation and interest rates in the first half of 2024, this blog has remained pretty quiet regarding where I think the US economy… Read More ›
Is This Full Employment?
The economy is doing well. Our last quarter’s annualized GDP growth was 4.2%, inflation has stayed moderately high, but below 3%, and foreign investors continue to pour capital into U.S. markets. We have even begun to see wage growth previously… Read More ›
The Millennial Economist 